Psephology and forecasting election results based on opinion polls is well established. But is there a data driven election analysis? The question came to mind as Goldman Sachs came out with a report on Indian Elections 2014 and the Congress Party central government minister were very angry and said why stock broking firm is making election forecasts. Can a security analyst use methods similar to the ones he uses to make stock market target price predictions and price trends. Such methods will be called data-based methods.
An interesting blog post in the regard is
Using Data-Driven Models to Predict Election Results
Fundamental Analysis and Models for Forecasting Elections
Fundamental models for forecasting elections are models that can make forecasts of the results of elections using only economic and political data available months before the election.
These models provide accurate forecasts of the results of elections before polls on voting intentions can accurately forecast elections. Fundamental models are also useful in that they give a better sense of what factors are driving the outcomes behind elections by indicating which types of economic and political data most meaningfully correlate with election outcomes.
Literature on Forecasting Elections
Arrow et al. (2008) notes that prediction markets resulted in an average forecasted error of 1.5 percentage points in the national popular vote in recent U.S. presidential elections, while the final Gallup poll resulted in an average error of 2.1 percentage points, and Berg et al. (2008a) finds similar results on the average accuracy of prediction markets and polls for forecasting the national popular vote just before U.S. presidential elections.
Holbrook and DeSart (1999), Kaplan and Barnett (2003), and Soumbatiants et al. (2006) show that one can use polls taken just before an election to make fairly accurate forecasts of the state-level results in U.S. presidential elections, and Rothschild (2009) shows this for both polls and prediction markets.
While polls and prediction markets can both be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts
of election results just before an election, these methods are much less reliable when used months
before an election.
Gelman and King (1993) notes that polls for the national popular vote in U.S. presidential elections tend to oscillate wildly in the months before the election takes place, and as a result, polls can be highly unreliable indicators of the election outcomes months before the election.
Arrow et al. (2008) further notes that using prediction market data to make forecasts of the national
popular vote five months before a U.S. presidential election would have resulted in an average error
of over 5 percentage points in recent elections, and that using pre-election polls would have resulted
in even less accurate predictions.
Rothschild (2009) investigates the errors in both polls and prediction markets at forecasting probabilities of victory at the state level up to 130 days before the election, and notes that there is not enough liquidity to even have predictions for some states.
Researchers have investigated many unique methods of forecasting election results months
before the election that may hold more promise than using polls or prediction markets. Several
techniques have been explored for forecasting the results of elections such as using biographical
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See, for example, Arrow et al. 2008, Berg et al. 2008a; 2008b, Brown and Chappell 1999, Holbrook and DeSart 1999, Kaplan and Barnett 2003, Pickup and Johnston 2008, and Soumbatiants et al. 2006. Erikson and Wlezien (2008a) indicates that the inaccuracy of polls suggests a need to systematically adjust for biases
in polls.
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information (Armstrong and Graefe 2011), using measures of how well candidates would be
expected to handle particular issues (Graefe and Armstrong 2012), surveying experts or voters for
their predictions (Jones et al. 2007; Lewis-Beck and Tien 1999), using indices that reflect a variety
concerns such as whether there has been a major policy change, a major military failure or success,
and social unrest or a scandal (Armstrong and Cuzán 2006; Lichtman 2008), or even using pictures
or silent video clips of candidates (Armstrong et al. 2010; Benjamin and Shapiro 2009).
However, while there is an extensive literature on forecasting elections using econometric models, so far the vast majority of this literature has focused on forecasting nationwide results. This holds for forecasting models of presidential elections, which typically focus on forecasting the national popular vote, and for forecasting models of congressional elections, which typically focus on forecasting the number of seats won by each major party in the two branches of Congress.
The focus on forecasting nationwide results for these elections is somewhat unsatisfying
because the results of these elections are typically determined at the state or local level. For
instance, the Electoral College elects the U.S. president, where each state has electors that equal its
congressional representation. Further, gubernatorial and senatorial elections are also state-level
elections. Despite this fact, so far only a handful of papers have addressed questions related to
forecasting election outcomes at the state level using econometric methods. Several papers related
to forecasting the results of the U.S. presidential election at the state level are of limited practical
use for forecasting elections because they focus on showing theoretically how one might make
______________
See, for example, Abramowitz 2008, Alesina et al. 1996, Bartels and Zaller 2001, Campbell 2008, Cuzán and Bundrick 2008, Erikson and Wlezien 2008, Fair 2009, Haynes and Stone 2004, Hibbs 2008, Holbrook 2008, Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008, Lockerbie 2008, Norpoth 2008, and Sidman et al. 2008.
5 See, for example, Abramowitz 2010, Abramowitz and Segal 1986, Bafumi et al. 2010a, Campbell 2010, Coleman 1997, Cuzán 2010, Fair 2009, Kastellec et al. 2008, Lewis-Beck and Rice 1984; 1985, Lewis-Beck and Tien 2010, and Marra and Ostrom 1989
_______________________
forecasts of elections if certain data that is only available after elections were available before the
election (Rosenstone 1983; Holbrook 1991; Strumpf and Phillipe 1999).
Campbell (1992) and Campbell et al. (2006) illustrate how one can combine the results of
polls taken roughly two months before the election with a variety of other economic and political
indicators to make forecasts of the results of U.S. presidential elections at the state level.
Like Campbell (1992) and Campbell et al. (2006), Klarner (2008) uses information from pre-election polls on voting intentions in his forecasting model, though Klarner (2008) uses polls on voting intentions that are taken further in advance of the election than those considered by Campbell (1992) and Campbell et al. (2006). Klarner (2008) does not report the results of the errors in his out-of-sample forecasts in his paper.
Bardwell and Lewis-Beck (2004) report results of a model that forecasts the results of Senate elections in Maine, and Klarner (2008) develops a model that forecasts the results of Senate elections for all states using information from pre-election polls on voting intentions.
There have been papers that have investigated factors that affect vote choice in gubernatorial elections (Adams and Kenney 1989; Atkeson and Partin 1995; Carsey and Wright 1998; Hansen 1999; Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990; Niemi et al. 1995; Partin 1995; Peltzman 1987; Svoboda 1995),
Some Important Variables
Incumbency: In the case of presidential elections, we expect voters to react differently depending on which party is the incumbent president. For this reason, we include a dummy variable that equals 1 (-1) if a Democrat (Republican) is president. However, since there is empirical evidence that voters are less likely to want to reelect members of the incumbent party if the incumbent party has been in office for multiple terms (Abramowitz 2008), we also include a variable that equals 1 (-1) if the Democrats (Republicans) have been in control of the presidency for at least eight consecutive years and 0 otherwise.
.
There is also empirical evidence that voters vote differently in Senate elections that takes place on a midterm than they do in Senate elections that take place the same year as a presidential election. Busch (1999), Chappell and Suzuki (1993) and Grofman et al. (1998) all suggest that voters are less likely to vote for members of the president’s party in Senate elections during a midterm than they are during a year when there is a presidential election.
Past Election Results: One of the best indicators of how states will vote in the future is differences
in how states voted in previous elections. Thus, in forecasting the Electoral College, we consider
variables that represent the difference between the fraction of the major party vote received by the
Democratic candidate in the state and the fraction of the major party vote received by the
Democratic candidate nationwide, in both of the two previous presidential elections.
While these variables are helpful in forecasting the results of future elections, these variables
can also sometimes give a misleading picture of the ideologies of the states. In some previous
presidential elections, there was a major third party candidate who took substantially more votes
from one major party candidate than another. For this reason, we include variables that address how
the vote shares of major third party candidates in previous elections should affect the forecasts we
make for future presidential elections. In particular, we consider the three different third party
candidates who received more than five percent of the national popular vote when they ran for
office.
State Ideology: In addition to past election results, we also find it helpful to include other measures
of ideology.
Different dummy variables for the different types of job experience that a candidate may have had has not been used before in the literature. The one other model for forecasting Senate elections at the state level that includes biographical information about the candidates instead considers a single variable that may assume
any one of several different arbitrarily chosen values depending on the previous experience of the
candidates (Klarner 2008).
While past election results are significant and meaningful in the presidential and senatorial
forecasting models, they are not statistically significant in the gubernatorial model. Including a
variable for past presidential elections analogous to that considered in the presidential and senatorial
models is not statistically significant in the gubernatorial model, perhaps a reflection of the fact that
gubernatorial elections and presidential elections involve different issues and voting patterns in one
of these types of elections are not especially predictive of voting patterns in the other. In addition,
The changes in income are better predictors of election results than gauges of the absolute level of performance of the economy such as, for example, absolute levels of
unemployment.
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Source:
Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections*
Patrick Hummel David Rothschild
PHummel@alumni.gsb.stanford.edu, David@ReseachDMR.com
http://patrickhummel.webs.com www.ResearchDMR.com
https://www.aeaweb.org/aea/2013conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid=88.
In case of India Mint a business daily published in collaboration with Wall Street Journal promised data driven election analysis article till Lok Sabha elections. One of them is
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/xBhIIn5Nxtuwvho6I6kT0I/Election-analysis-Decoding-corners-of-contests.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://votamatic.org/
